While cleaning out my shop gutters today I was working on a math formula that would predict the chance of a neighbor having a tree with just the right size leaves to clog your gutters. Not so small that they just float away and not so large as to be easy to remove.
So, I would need to know the chance of it being the right type of tree and the chance that the tree has grown tall enough so the leaves can fall down into said gutters and/or onto the roof serviced by said gutters.
The chance of the wind blowing in the correct direction and the traction the leaves get on my roof. Not much traction is needed, turns out that it’s just wishful thinking that the leaves will blow off a roof.
What is the chance of rain once your gutters are full of leaves of just the right size to prevent good water flow?
Turns out no formula is needed as it’s 100% certain that all this will happen.